Hydrogen, Fuel Cell & Energy Storage

Hydrogen, Fuel Cell & Energy Storage

Robust Multi-Criteria Optimization of a Residential Power–Heat–Hydrogen Polygeneration System: Integrating HOMER Scenarios with Monte Carlo–Fuzzy TOPSIS

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Department of Electrical Engineering, Sav.C., Islamic Azad University, Saveh, Iran
2 Energy and Environment Research Center, ShK.C., Islamic Azad University, Sharekord, Iran.
10.22104/hfe.2026.8194.1398
Abstract
This study aims to identify the optimal configuration of a polygeneration (power-heat-hydrogen) system at the residential scale through a case study of a 90 m2 residential apartment in Tehran, Iran. The novelty of this study lies in integrating scenario simulation in HOMER with the Fuzzy TOPSIS multi-criteria decision-making framework and evaluating the robustness of the decision under uncertainty using Monte Carlo-TOPSIS. Four scenarios -- PV-Grid, Grid, PV-Wind-Grid, and Wind-Grid -- were evaluated based on the criteria of the levelized cost of electricity (COE), the levelized cost of hydrogen (COH), \ce{CO2} emissions, and the share of renewable energy in electricity and heating. Fuzzy TOPSIS results indicated that Scenario 1 (PV-Grid) is the best option under both weighting policies, with a Closeness Coefficient (CC) of 0.99 in the Cost-priority policy and 0.98 in the Climate-priority policy. Scenario 3 (PV-Wind-Grid) ranked second, with CC values of 0.74 and 0.79. Scenarios 4 and 2 performed the worst, with CC values of approximately 0.11-0.13 and 0.02-0.06, respectively. Monte Carlo analysis reported a rank-1 probability equal to 0.99 for Scenario 1 and 0.01 for Scenario 3. Furthermore, the stability of Scenario 1 was confirmed with a very small interquartile range (IQR) (maximum 0.00475 at ±50%) and a mean CC of 0.984738. The findings are applicable to system designers, researchers, and policymakers in the building sector for resilient decision-making.
Keywords
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